Current economic development of the textile industry and future trends

The China Textile Industry Federation held the third economic operation conference of the textile industry in 2012. Sun Huaibin, deputy secretary general and director of the information center, briefed the media on the economic operation of the textile industry in the first half of 2012 and pointed out that the textile industry is facing a severe situation this year. Journalists from major media and industry media in Beijing attended the press conference.

Since 2012, due to factors such as sluggish external demand, slowing domestic demand, and widening domestic and overseas cotton spreads, the textile industry has continued to decelerate its economic growth since last year, and the growth rates of major economic indicators such as production, exports and investment have continued to slow down. The efficiency has declined. At present, the industry continues to actively respond to external risks through measures such as deepening structural adjustment and strengthening industry self-regulation. It also expects relevant state policies to support and help the textile industry to return to a stable and healthy development track as soon as possible.

First, the current economic characteristics of the textile industry 1, production slowdown. Since 2012, the textile industry's production growth rate has continued to slow down. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, 37,000 textile enterprises above designated size achieved a total industrial output value of 314.47 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than that of the previous year. The decrease was 18.8 percentage points over the same period, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from the first quarter of this year. Among the major categories of products, the growth rate of output of upstream products dropped more clearly. From January to July, the output of chemical fiber and fabrics of enterprises above designated size increased by 12.4% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively, a decrease of 3.8 and 3.5 percentage points from the same period of last year, compared with the first quarter of this year. Declined by 1.1 and 5.4 percentage points; yarn production increased by 12.9% year-on-year, 1.7 percentage points higher than the same period of last year and 0.2 percentage point lower than the first quarter of this year. The growth rate of output of end products rebounded. From January to July, apparel output increased by 11.8% year-on-year, 0.3% higher than the same period of last year and 3.9 percentage points higher than the first quarter of this year.

2, domestic sales fell. Affected by the slowdown in domestic macroeconomic growth and the continuing high price level, since 2012, the domestic textile and apparel consumption growth rate has declined. From January to July, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needle textiles above designated size in the country increased by 17% year-on-year, which was 7.2% lower than the same period of last year; if the price factor was deducted, the actual growth rate of retail sales was 13%, which was lower than the same period of last year 5.7 Percentage. From January to July, the output value of domestic textile enterprises above designated size was 2507.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, a decrease of 20.3 percentage points from the same period of last year and a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from the first quarter of this year.

3, export pressure. Due to the sluggish demand in the international market, continued widening of domestic and overseas cotton spreads, and the continuous rise in production costs, the pressure on China's textile and apparel exports has increased significantly since 2012. According to customs statistics, from January to July, China exported 141.58 billion U.S. dollars worth of textiles and clothing, an increase of only 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 25 percentage points from the same period of last year and a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the first quarter of this year. If the price increase factor is deducted, the actual export volume of the textile industry will show a negative growth. From January to July, the export price of textile and apparel in China will increase by 2.9% year-on-year, and the export volume will decrease by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 5 percentage points from the same period of last year.

4, investment slows down. Affected by the slowdown in the economic growth of the industry, textile companies’ investment confidence has declined, investment growth has slowed down, and new projects have decreased. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July 2012, the total investment in fixed assets of the textile industry totaled 416.4 billion yuan, an increase of 16.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 19.5 percentage points lower than the same period of last year; the new project 7945 was started. This was a decrease of 9.4% year-on-year and a decrease of 6.3% from the same period of last year. Although investment growth in the industry slowed down, new investment in the central and western regions continued to grow at a rapid rate. From January to July, investment in the textile industry in the central region increased by 18.7% year-on-year, accounting for 30.5% of the country's total, which was higher than the same period of last year. 0.5 percentage points; the investment in the western region increased by 19.7% year-on-year, accounting for 8% of the country's total, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the same period of last year.

5. The efficiency declines. Since 2012, the textile industry's production efficiency has continued to increase. From January to June, the labor productivity of enterprises above designated size has increased by 12.7% year-on-year, providing support for resolving various risks. However, due to the concentration of external unfavorable factors, the pressure on the development of enterprises is too great, and the industry's benefits have fallen from the same period of last year. From January to June, the total profit of textile enterprises above designated size reached 114.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, and the growth rate was lower than the 43.2% in the same period of last year. The sales margin was 4.5%, down 0.5% year-on-year. The company’s loss was 18.4%, and the losses of loss-making enterprises increased by 124.1% year-on-year. Among the sub-sectors, cotton spinning and chemical fiber were affected by the price fluctuation of raw materials, and the profits of the industry all showed a negative growth trend. From January to June, the chemical fiber industry fell by 52.3%, and the profits of 105 cotton textile backbone enterprises dropped by 52.1%.

II. Trends of the Textile Industry in 2012 1. The growth rate of domestic demand is expected to increase Since 2012, due to the deceleration of domestic macroeconomic growth, the growth rate of domestic demand for textiles and clothing has slowed down compared with the same period of last year. However, the income of urban and rural residents still maintained a steady growth. In the first half of the year, the real growth rate of per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita cash income of rural residents reached 9.7% and 12.4% respectively, which provided a fundamental driving force for the growth of domestic demand, and insisting on expanding domestic demand is still a macro The important starting point of regulatory policies. Recently, domestic monetary policies have eased, and prices have gradually eased steadily. As the effect becomes more apparent, it will play a positive role in promoting domestic consumption growth. On the whole, although the growth rate of clothing domestic consumption during the year will still be lower than the level of the previous year, it will show a gradual increase in the growth rate, and will gradually increase the driving force for the textile industry.

2. The overall downturn in the international market The decline in foreign demand has caused the lack of orders from exporting companies is an important factor affecting the operation of the textile industry. According to relevant statistics, in the first half of 2012, the EU’s total amount of imported textiles and clothing decreased by 6.9% year-on-year, the total amount of US textile and apparel imports approached zero growth, and Japan’s textile and apparel imports only increased by 2.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 10.8 from the same period of last year. Percentage points, the overall international market demand is sluggish. Affected by the continued deterioration of the debt crisis in Europe, the current international market recovery is still facing higher risks. The latest announcement by the International Monetary Authority in mid-July will reduce the 2012 global economic growth rate by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%, indicating that the global economy is recovering. The outlook is not optimistic. It is expected that the overall international market will remain sluggish in 2012, and the export of the textile industry will still lack market momentum for stabilization.

3. The cotton price issue is still prominent Since 2012, domestic cotton prices have always been higher than the international market, and the spread has continued to widen. As of mid-August, domestic cotton prices have been more than 5,000 yuan per ton higher than the international market, and the spread has expanded over the beginning of the year 67 %, resulting in a serious decline in the competitiveness of China's cotton textile industry chain, the deterioration of corporate profits. According to market supply and demand, it is expected that the recent domestic and foreign cotton spreads will be difficult to reduce significantly through market adjustments. In addition, the new round of domestic temporary cotton purchasing and storage policies will start soon, and the issue of cotton price gap between domestic and overseas will still exist, which will still be the primary factor affecting the operation of the textile industry.

4. There are still many risk factors. Accelerating self-adjustment is still an important task At present, various pressure factors that have affected the development of the industry in recent years still exist. The cost of production factors such as the employment of textile enterprises continues to increase. According to the survey, the average wage of the textile industry in the first half of the year increased by approximately 15% year-on-year. Statistics show that domestic fuel-power prices increased by 3% from January to July. The financing problem of corporate financing is still not completely solved, and the cost of financing remains high. In the first half of the year, the interest expenses of enterprises above designated size increased by 29.5% year-on-year, which was 19.8% higher than the growth rate of main business income during the same period. Coupled with the continuing downturn in external demand and fluctuations in raw material prices, overall, the current economic operation of the industry still faces many risks. Further deepening the adjustment of industrial structure, speeding up the transformation of development methods, and resolving various external risks from the root cause are still the whole industry. The fundamental task facing us.

5. The growth rate of the industry economy will continue to fall, but the fall rate will gradually slow down the support of the domestic demand market. The industry's major production and sales indicators will still achieve growth. However, under the circumstances that the demand in the international market is unlikely to improve significantly, domestic production costs continue to rise, and the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, it is expected that the industry's export pressure will remain prominent, which will drive the growth of the industry's production and sales further decline. As the trend of cotton prices at home and abroad is not yet clear, the trend of negative growth in the benefits of the textile industry cannot be reversed. However, with the gradual recovery of domestic demand growth and the decline in the statistical base of the same period of last year, it is expected that the decline in the growth rate of industrial production and sales may be gradually reduced.