On September 15, at the National Cotton Situation Analysis Conference convened by the China Cotton Association, Mao Shuchun, a researcher at the Cotton Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, introduced the situation of cotton growth, production, and costs.
I. Cotton Growth and Production Outlook 1. The cotton planting area shows a recovery growth. As a result of the monitoring, the country sown an area of ​​81.24 million mu, an increase of 7.1% from the caliber of 535 mu. The area sown in the three major river basins increased, with the growth rate of the Yangtze River basin being 11.7%, that of the inland northwest increasing by 8.1%, and that of the Yellow River basin only increasing by 3.0%. By the end of September, the harvested cotton fields in the country were small, almost all of the help fields had a harvest, and they also increased their total production.
2. The total production increment has decreased. The first is a good start. The Yangtze River is suffering from poor drought. The second is that the seedling situation keeps improving. Due to the "dry and hot" features of the pre- and mid-term weather, although the drought-dominated disasters tend to be heavy, they are growing better. According to monitoring, the average value of the China Cotton Growth Index (CCGI) from May to August is 121, indicating that the growth is better than 20% in the same period of last year and better than the 8% in the year-round. Third, since September, the temperature in the interior has dropped, rain has become more frequent, there is less light, and there are fewer autumn peaches. The number of rotten bells is higher than expected, and the increase in unit production has decreased. It is estimated that the total output will be about 7 million tons, and the increase will be 100,000 tons less than in mid-August.
3. The three major river basins are not the same. The Yangtze River Basin: The increase in production is weakening, and the weather in the later period also has an impact on the output. The basin was better than nearly 20% in the same period last year. During the May-June period, droughts and floods changed sharply. From July to August, droughts and floods were common. In late August, low-temperature and rainy days continued for more than 20 days. The upper part fell off and there were few bells, but there were fewer rotten bells and less precocious areas. September In the first half of the year, it is cloudy, but there is less rainfall.
Yellow River Basin: The increase in yield from slightly increased. The growth was better than a year earlier. The weather in the first half of the year was stable, the growth was steady, and the increase in production was strong. However, since September, there have been many low-temperature and rainy days, and the yield has increased slightly due to the increase in production. Recently, the “autumn wet†caused by the rain in North China has caused poor bolling, and the yield has turned from flat to flat.
Northwest Inland: For good harvest and high yields. The growth was better than 30% over the same period last year. The weather was steady and steady in the first half of the year. According to an inspection conducted in late August, Xinjiang Chengling’s 100,000/mu plots continue to emerge, and the yield may be higher again. Although it experienced short-term low-temperature and rainy weather in late August, it quickly turned good. Since the normal temperature in early and mid-September, its production was mostly stereotyped, and the harvest was basically a foregone conclusion.
Second, the implementation of a temporary purchase and storage policy, to fulfill the promise of open acquisitions (a) a large margin of temporary storage price increases in this year than in 2008 12,600 yuan / ton increase 7,200 yuan / ton, an increase of up to 57.1%, after deducting 1,000 yuan / Ton processing and transportation fees, the price increase rate also reached 49.2%, indicating that the country attaches great importance to cotton, and strive to protect the income of cotton farmers do not reduce, and urge the stability of cotton production, but also fully consider the factors of rising costs, to deal with temporary storage policy Fully affirmed. According to the provisional purchase price of 18,800 yuan/ton, with a 38% lint ratio and cottonseeds of 3.0 yuan/kg, the farmer's 328 seed cotton was sold at 8.96 yuan/kg, which is a top-bottom purchase price.
(2) Temporary acquisition of temporary acquisitions, strengthening supervision 1. Temporary initiation of temporary storage. September 8 has started to buy storage.
2. Publicity is good, supervision is good, and good policies are implemented.
3, expand the amount of temporary storage.
Third, the calculation of cost, output value and income in accordance with the 18800 yuan / ton price, seed cotton price of 8.8 yuan / kg, compared with last year's average selling price of 10.94 yuan / kg compared to a decrease of 19.6%, measuring the output value of the main product minus one percent Due to the substantial increase in costs, it is expected that the revenue of the three major producing areas will be reduced by 20% to 40%. The reduction is also closely related to the unit production and grade, and there is uncertainty.
(1) The double rise in material and labor costs continued to increase the cost of cotton-planting, and the increase in labor costs was unpredictable. It is estimated that the annual cost will increase by at least 202.1 yuan/mu, or a rise of 14.0%, pushing the cost of lint to rise by 2377.6 yuan/ton, that is, by increasing by 12.6% on the basis of 18,800 yuan/ton, the reasonable price of new cotton is expected to be 2.1~ Between 22,000 yuan / ton, this price can maintain the growth of cotton planting income.
(b) Taking northern Xinjiang as an example, it is estimated that the output value of the main product has slightly decreased, and the revenue has decreased by more than two percent to early September. The output of the northern Xinjiang is basically set. According to inspections and housekeeping monitoring in late August, according to 18,800 yuan/ton, the purchase price of new cotton decreased by 17.7%, namely 1.56 yuan to 8.8 yuan/kg, and that of seed cotton increased by 16.7%, ie, 44.3 kg to 309.3 kg/mu, and the output value decreased by 0.9%. That is 24 yuan to 2721.4 yuan/mu, the cost rose 17.4%, that is, 260 yuan to 1758.0 yuan/mu, and the revenue decreased by 22.8%, that is, 284 yuan to 963.4 yuan/mu. The increase in output partially offsets the price drop, but the cost increase cannot be partially Make up, the income is reduced by more than two percent.
4. A comprehensive analysis of the new cotton price outlook. The temporary purchase and storage, rising costs and inflation have the greatest impact on the price of new cotton. First, temporary storage and storage prices will have a supportive effect on the market, and new cotton prices will show a stable trend. Second, under the influence of rising costs and inflation, there is a greater possibility that prices will fluctuate upward and rebound. Perhaps the new cotton price will return to a reasonable range. In addition, if commercial bank funds enter the acquisition, market prices will also increase.
V. Look at the country for this year's cotton harvest and weak consumption, the proposed additional amount is not added; even if additional, with the additional tariff rates can not be reduced to 5%.
I. Cotton Growth and Production Outlook 1. The cotton planting area shows a recovery growth. As a result of the monitoring, the country sown an area of ​​81.24 million mu, an increase of 7.1% from the caliber of 535 mu. The area sown in the three major river basins increased, with the growth rate of the Yangtze River basin being 11.7%, that of the inland northwest increasing by 8.1%, and that of the Yellow River basin only increasing by 3.0%. By the end of September, the harvested cotton fields in the country were small, almost all of the help fields had a harvest, and they also increased their total production.
2. The total production increment has decreased. The first is a good start. The Yangtze River is suffering from poor drought. The second is that the seedling situation keeps improving. Due to the "dry and hot" features of the pre- and mid-term weather, although the drought-dominated disasters tend to be heavy, they are growing better. According to monitoring, the average value of the China Cotton Growth Index (CCGI) from May to August is 121, indicating that the growth is better than 20% in the same period of last year and better than the 8% in the year-round. Third, since September, the temperature in the interior has dropped, rain has become more frequent, there is less light, and there are fewer autumn peaches. The number of rotten bells is higher than expected, and the increase in unit production has decreased. It is estimated that the total output will be about 7 million tons, and the increase will be 100,000 tons less than in mid-August.
3. The three major river basins are not the same. The Yangtze River Basin: The increase in production is weakening, and the weather in the later period also has an impact on the output. The basin was better than nearly 20% in the same period last year. During the May-June period, droughts and floods changed sharply. From July to August, droughts and floods were common. In late August, low-temperature and rainy days continued for more than 20 days. The upper part fell off and there were few bells, but there were fewer rotten bells and less precocious areas. September In the first half of the year, it is cloudy, but there is less rainfall.
Yellow River Basin: The increase in yield from slightly increased. The growth was better than a year earlier. The weather in the first half of the year was stable, the growth was steady, and the increase in production was strong. However, since September, there have been many low-temperature and rainy days, and the yield has increased slightly due to the increase in production. Recently, the “autumn wet†caused by the rain in North China has caused poor bolling, and the yield has turned from flat to flat.
Northwest Inland: For good harvest and high yields. The growth was better than 30% over the same period last year. The weather was steady and steady in the first half of the year. According to an inspection conducted in late August, Xinjiang Chengling’s 100,000/mu plots continue to emerge, and the yield may be higher again. Although it experienced short-term low-temperature and rainy weather in late August, it quickly turned good. Since the normal temperature in early and mid-September, its production was mostly stereotyped, and the harvest was basically a foregone conclusion.
Second, the implementation of a temporary purchase and storage policy, to fulfill the promise of open acquisitions (a) a large margin of temporary storage price increases in this year than in 2008 12,600 yuan / ton increase 7,200 yuan / ton, an increase of up to 57.1%, after deducting 1,000 yuan / Ton processing and transportation fees, the price increase rate also reached 49.2%, indicating that the country attaches great importance to cotton, and strive to protect the income of cotton farmers do not reduce, and urge the stability of cotton production, but also fully consider the factors of rising costs, to deal with temporary storage policy Fully affirmed. According to the provisional purchase price of 18,800 yuan/ton, with a 38% lint ratio and cottonseeds of 3.0 yuan/kg, the farmer's 328 seed cotton was sold at 8.96 yuan/kg, which is a top-bottom purchase price.
(2) Temporary acquisition of temporary acquisitions, strengthening supervision 1. Temporary initiation of temporary storage. September 8 has started to buy storage.
2. Publicity is good, supervision is good, and good policies are implemented.
3, expand the amount of temporary storage.
Third, the calculation of cost, output value and income in accordance with the 18800 yuan / ton price, seed cotton price of 8.8 yuan / kg, compared with last year's average selling price of 10.94 yuan / kg compared to a decrease of 19.6%, measuring the output value of the main product minus one percent Due to the substantial increase in costs, it is expected that the revenue of the three major producing areas will be reduced by 20% to 40%. The reduction is also closely related to the unit production and grade, and there is uncertainty.
(1) The double rise in material and labor costs continued to increase the cost of cotton-planting, and the increase in labor costs was unpredictable. It is estimated that the annual cost will increase by at least 202.1 yuan/mu, or a rise of 14.0%, pushing the cost of lint to rise by 2377.6 yuan/ton, that is, by increasing by 12.6% on the basis of 18,800 yuan/ton, the reasonable price of new cotton is expected to be 2.1~ Between 22,000 yuan / ton, this price can maintain the growth of cotton planting income.
(b) Taking northern Xinjiang as an example, it is estimated that the output value of the main product has slightly decreased, and the revenue has decreased by more than two percent to early September. The output of the northern Xinjiang is basically set. According to inspections and housekeeping monitoring in late August, according to 18,800 yuan/ton, the purchase price of new cotton decreased by 17.7%, namely 1.56 yuan to 8.8 yuan/kg, and that of seed cotton increased by 16.7%, ie, 44.3 kg to 309.3 kg/mu, and the output value decreased by 0.9%. That is 24 yuan to 2721.4 yuan/mu, the cost rose 17.4%, that is, 260 yuan to 1758.0 yuan/mu, and the revenue decreased by 22.8%, that is, 284 yuan to 963.4 yuan/mu. The increase in output partially offsets the price drop, but the cost increase cannot be partially Make up, the income is reduced by more than two percent.
4. A comprehensive analysis of the new cotton price outlook. The temporary purchase and storage, rising costs and inflation have the greatest impact on the price of new cotton. First, temporary storage and storage prices will have a supportive effect on the market, and new cotton prices will show a stable trend. Second, under the influence of rising costs and inflation, there is a greater possibility that prices will fluctuate upward and rebound. Perhaps the new cotton price will return to a reasonable range. In addition, if commercial bank funds enter the acquisition, market prices will also increase.
V. Look at the country for this year's cotton harvest and weak consumption, the proposed additional amount is not added; even if additional, with the additional tariff rates can not be reduced to 5%.
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