According to a Reuters report on the 14th, China today announced unexpectedly strong trade data, providing new evidence that the world's third largest economy is on the recovery track and global demand is expanding.
China's General Administration of Customs said that China's exports fell 15.2% year-on-year in September, lower than the forecast of 21%, while imports fell only 3.5%, much lower than the forecast of 15.3%.
Brian Jackson, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, said that the slowdown in import and export declines is good news for China's economic recovery, as China's economic growth this year is too dependent on the government's 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan.
China's General Administration of Customs said that after adjusting for the number of working days per month, exports in September increased by 6.3% compared with August, and imports increased by 8.3%.
Jackson said: "More robust external demand will be another driving force for growth, and it will provide an opportunity for Beijing to gradually tighten its policies from the beginning of 2010."
Despite strong import performance, China’s trade surplus fell from $15.7 billion in August to $12.9 billion in September. The market had predicted a trade surplus of $17 billion in September.
Economists believe that export data will continue to improve year on year.
Nomura Securities expects that the year-on-year difference in export data will turn positive in December. Barclays Capital said that this situation may occur sooner in November.
Goldman Sachs economists Song Yu and Qiao Hong believe: "The potential growth momentum of import and export has been increasing, keeping up with the situation that the domestic economy continues to strengthen and the external demand recovery signal is becoming more and more obvious."
Sun Mingchun, an economist at Nomura Securities in Hong Kong, agrees. He said that China is busy buying more investment products to implement the economic stimulus package centered on infrastructure construction, and is also busy buying consumer goods.
Commodity trading is the driving force behind the surge in Chinese imports.
Reuters survey of economists shows that the forecast for the third quarter's annual economic growth rate is likely to increase from 7.9% in the second quarter to 8.9%. These data will be released on October 22.
Experts believe that Beijing will eventually hope that the renminbi will continue to appreciate in order to promote domestic demand and help China and the rest of the world to rebalance. This is an important goal of the G20 Forum, and Beijing has a great say in the G20 Forum.
According to a Reuters report on the 14th, the People's Bank of China announced on Wednesday that the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of September was 2.2726 trillion US dollars, an increase of 19.26%.
The central bank also announced that China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 326.6 billion U.S. dollars in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 50.7 billion U.S. dollars, including an increase of 61.8 billion U.S. dollars in September.
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